'Avengers: Infinity War' Powering To Massive China Opening

After climbing to $1.64 billion over the weekend, with $115 million domestically and $162 million internationally, Marvel Studios' mega-blockbuster Avengers: Infinity War had a strong second Monday, adding an estimated $33 million in global receipts and putting the picture at about $1.98+ billion, before passing $1.2+ billion on Tuesday morning. Official data for Tuesday should put the to-date total somewhere in the $1.21-1.22+ billion range.

Infinity War is expected to pass $1.25+ billion before heading into its third weekend. There is even a chance the weekday figures could be strong enough to push the pre-weekend numbers toward $1.28 billion, although that's a higher-end estimate assuming Monday's data is reflective of the rest of the week. I'm personally expecting something close to $1.26 billion as the final number through Thursday.

The third weekend will receive an enormous boost as Infinity War opens in China to north of $100+ million, pushing the worldwide weekend cume to at least $220+ million, and more likely $250+/- million. That should be enough to send the Marvel blockbuster toward $1.5 billion, and it will need just $19 million beyond that mark to surpass the lifetime gross of 2012's The Avengers and take the crown as the biggest superhero movie in cinema history. A running cume of $1.519 billion will also make Infinity War the fifth-highest grossing movie in cinema history.

Beyond the third weekend, Infinity War will have a growing field of big challengers to contend with, so expect to see larger declines outside of China (where it will put up enormous numbers). A modest estimate of global receipts going forward suggests the picture can add another $275-300 million, on top of the roughly $1.5 billion it will have after the third weekend. Which, of course, points to a final worldwide total of at least $1.7+ billion, probably closer to $1.8 billion territory.

An even bigger than expected play in China and better holds in other internationally markets could be enough to help Infinity War set its sights on $2 billion, but I'm waiting for official post-third-weekend numbers before I feel comfortable predicting $2 billion as an actual strong possibility. For now I'll note that after Infinity War hits $1.672 billion, it will be the fourth-highest grossing film of all time, and the biggest film under $2 billion.

Marvel plays big in China and elsewhere in the Asia Pacific region. 2016's Captain America: Civil War opened to $93 million in China, while Avengers: Age of Ultron topped $155 million when it bowed in the Middle Kingdom. Those films went on to gross $180+ million and $240+ million, respectively, in China.

Other solo outings for the MCU tend to open strong and gross north of $100 million, but Infinity War is going to perform somewhere much closer to those aforementioned big team-up event releases, and I expect results that beat the Age of Ultron opening and theatrical run in China. If that happens, then we're looking at a third weekend of upwards of $280+ million worldwide, enough to guarantee Infinity War tops $1.5 billion this coming weekend.

The two biggest relevant factors in Infinity War's future performance and final box office total are the opening of Deadpool 2 on May 18, and the opening of Solo: A Star Wars Story on May 25. We saw Black Panther continuing to hold well and attract sizable audiences weekend after weekend even against notable new releases in the marketplace competed for the same target demographics. The question is, can Infinity War do the same? It will have to, if it wants to make a serious run at $2 billion.

I'll continue to have updated box office data and predictions for you throughout Avengers: Infinity War's run, plus plenty of analysis of Disney's market position and other related topics, so stay tuned and watch this space for more to come.

via Forbes https://www.forbes.com

May 9, 2018 at 04:14PM